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21
SPA3 Investor / Re: SPA3EFT - TRAINING
« Last post by JohnR on 17/11/2019, 10:53:58 AM »
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SPA3ETF section of the SWS members zone
Could you provide a link to the above please?

I'm a bit confused about the SPA3ETF product, is there a separate add on that I don't have? yet my Beyond Charts Watch under Industry Watch Lists do list ETFs as follows:
SWS ASX ETFs for SPA3 Investor.
SWS ETFs for SPA3ETF.
SWS Stocks for SPA3ETF.

All of the above ETFs within appear to have the system ATR-TS buy and sell signal system applied and working.
I went looking for the link SWS Members Zone in Beyond Charts but couldn't find it.

I also noticed the drop down menu in the video opening scene is different to mine in Beyond Charts?
https://learn.sharewealthsystems.com/courses/306456/lectures/4717777
See attached images. My Beyond Charts is image 1 with no ETF listing.
:confused:

There are more confusing things in the BC drop down menu but they aren't related to ETFs so will enquire separate about them.
22
Beyond Charts / Re: Help with BCFL custom Scans & Coding
« Last post by JohnR on 16/11/2019, 12:49:01 PM »
Ok here's the things;
Spa3 Investor is the way in which a 'timed market' approach to investing in equities is 'the' proven methodology and "The Better Way to Invest".

When I list the ETF products like Vanguard ASX ETF's I get (at this time) 29 results, of which only two are SPA3 Investor implemented.
So really I can only track two ETF (VTS, VAS) through SPA3's system, as I don't have access to the ATR-TS system indicator to apply to the other ETF's

The issue I may be facing is that financial advice sought might not be for either of the two Vanguard products tracked by the SPA3 system, but other Vanguard listed ETF's.  (Note: I am preempting the delivery of this advise at this time).

Using a Financial Adviser (FA) is my family's approach to generating an income stream for a senior family member who doesn't really understand how investing is done. I have also impressed upon the FA to consider a low risk growth aspect for future anticipated and unanticipated major expenses outside of a simple income stream.
The FA's approach is explained as 'buy and hold' for long terms (3 years min.) and reviewed annually, which translates to 'buy and hold' passive investing.
And I might add that the SPA3 system I have purchased is at this time, not understood or trusted by the family, along with my efforts to use the system for family related investments is also greatly lacking in faith and trust.

So the best I can personally do is 'back seat' monitor what the FA has selected in way of ASX listed ETF's who are also entrusted to implement the plan. All i can do is monitor through a cobbled together clone of the system SPA3 ATR-TS indicator that is not systematised for portfolio management for timed entry and exit signals. So any future signal recommendations I may put forward to the financial adviser is somewhat subjective based on my own interpreted reading of my own indicator signals, the validity of which may well be challenged by the FA.

How best to go about using the beneficial features of a 'timed market' methodology for investing if the advice is given for non SPA3 ETF's if this eventuates in the FA's statement of advice? And or, how could I best implement a system that would generate sufficient trust for timed signals that could be relayed to FA for action.
With my tendency to stutter, my spoken words  :confused: alone are not very convincing.
Cheers.


23
SPA3 Investor / Re: Using weekly signals for ETF??
« Last post by Dave McCulloch on 08/11/2019, 11:24:25 AM »
Hi Singhy,

Thanks for your question.

The SPA3 Investor methodology has been researched on daily price action and as such the strategy should only be used on daily charts as that's where the edge is.

Whilst you can see the signals displayed on weekly charts the systems is designed to be used on daily charts only. The signals on weekly charts occur much later than those on the daily chart and as such mean that entries and exit signals are quite delayed.

Because of the later signals it means that end of trade drawdown is likely to be much higher  and it also means that entries occur much later resulting in lost potential growth.

When looking at weekly charts though you can see that the use of the ATR trailing stop can keep positions open for a longer time, but again there's missed opportunity on both sides of the ledger....eg getting in late and out late.

Having said that a very small number of customers do use the weekly signals, but it's not the optimal way to use SPA3 Investor.

If you need any further clarification on this Singhy, please feel free to touch base with me.

Regards,

David.

email: davidm@sharewealthsystems.com
24
SPA3 Investor / Using weekly signals for ETF??
« Last post by Singhy on 06/11/2019, 07:19:15 PM »
Hi Team,

I've been playing around with Beyond Charts.  When we select a security/ETF we can select either daily/weekly/monthly charts.  I have noticed that there are entry and exit signals on the weekly charts.  At first I thought this was an error but upon further research it seems as though this gives an even better edge than the daily signal (for ETF's anyway).  I don't have USA data but I looked at XJO over a 5/10/25 year timeframe and the system seems to protect you against those large downturns while leaving you to ride the waves and collect dividends along the way.  These weekly signals seem to work for IVV/IJH as well.

I guess the question is, is this intentional or merely a by-product of software coding?  Am I right to say that we could use these weekly signals for entry/exit trades?

Looking forward to hearing your thoughts.
25
SPA3 Investor / Re: NAB sell signal 1/11/19
« Last post by Singhy on 06/11/2019, 07:06:02 PM »
Hi,

Many thanks for that.  I do see the signal as an ISL signal vs ATR_TS signal.  Thanks for pointing out the 'green' line/number, was wondering what that was!
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SPA3 Investor / Re: NAB sell signal 1/11/19
« Last post by Campbell Sinclair on 06/11/2019, 11:23:54 AM »
Hello,

When a position is closed in SPA3 Investor, we stop tracking the exit and flip the ATR_TS (the line you always see) to begin tracking re-entry. I feel like the underlying question here is why the sell was given when the trailing stop was at 27.77 for the previous sessions before the sell signal, while the day closed at 28.41, which is what I will talk to.

For NAB, the exit was actually an ISL signal not the ATR_TS exit signal. Now over time you will see green lines appear on charts currently within an open trade, these green lines are SPA3 Investor starting to track an alternative exit signal of interest. There are a few situations that cause these but usually only 1 if any are looked at a given time.

So these green trailing stops appear because some criteria for these exits have been met, as a result a new trailing stop based on these criteria has been formed visually on a chart. They follow the same rules as the ATR_TS, when the close crosses below one of these green trailing stops we flag a sell then start looking for an entry. These exits can be above or below the ATR_TS, current examples of them occuring can be seen on CSL, WOW and ALQ.

They do disappear when an exit is signaled, because at a broad view they are no longer relevant to where SPA3 Investor is at for a stock. As it is looking for a re-entry now, we do not need to know about possible sells which SPA3 Investor may not even flag as relevant the next time the stock is an open trade.

27
SPA3 Investor / NAB sell signal 1/11/19
« Last post by Singhy on 01/11/2019, 10:04:28 PM »
SWS app gave a sell signal for NAB today.  Checked Beyond Charts and the rapid rise in the 'signal line' doesn't seem to make sense.  Can someone please advise.
28
Beyond Charts / Re: Help with BCFL custom Scans & Coding
« Last post by JohnR on 10/10/2019, 10:49:57 PM »
Outstanding! thanks for the succinct replies. Going to sit back and read for a few days. You could have easily have flipped me off with all those nube questions, but your professionalism and comprehension of the system clearly shines through, a credit to you and the Share Wealth Team.

I should yield to your wisdom and just eyeball the ROC indicator, cross my fingers and pack all this stuff up and leave you to get on with it, but...

I have the RSI worked out and was going to edit my above post but your reply beat me to it, so will just say the RSI percentage change was nothing more than a subtraction:
RSI_%Change := RSI_% Today - % DAY_3;
This gives the current change percent from bar -3 and the column next to: RSI % Today, so two columns.
Probably not quite what I was looking for but will do for now so I can move on with other columns to build up the code base so I can then cut and paste between indicators..


I take your point about Rate of Change indicator 'as' the measure of comparative change, taken at face value.  So if the ROC formula is compared to another reference value, like a market index, or just the ROC zero line itself from a date like the 1st day of the month, so that a comparative level of reference can be achieved. Sounds simple but my brain doesn't work in code yet, I can think it out in words but zip in code.

Need to chew on this for a bit, might see if anyone has done this sort of thing in TradingView.

Cheers.


 

29
Beyond Charts / Re: Help with BCFL custom Scans & Coding
« Last post by Campbell Sinclair on 10/10/2019, 04:38:10 PM »
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I understand the principal of the system, your explanations are helpful, my problems arise as a user based experience over the last 8 to 9 months, and how I think there could be improvement for narrowing the field to thoroughbred only race more suitable to my portfolio and cash allocation sizing. I don't see a problem with this, and the tools are there to use in BCFL. If this can be achieved as a scan it will save me time having to go through dozens of extra charts every night/day.

This is fair enough and understood, there will often be cases where there are more positions than cash available. There is also nothing wrong with trying to do what you are doing, but there can be reasons why we have got to the point we have as well. The system design from the team here has focused on the equity curve and the day to day transitions to achieve that equity curve. I could write for days on this and probably go on some cycling ramblings while doing it, but just know it's all fine. The core point I wanted to make was that it is not necessary to use BCFL, or should not be seen as a requirement more so for SPA3 operation.

BCFL is one of those degrees of tools that may make the edge go sideways, back or far higher. You don't know until it is done and it can take a long time to get to "done" or a starting point. I think this is well understood and I'll leave it there.

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So just thinking out aloud to overview the potential ranking system inputs in BCFL, in this same way; there could be a value assigned for a bunch of indicators crossing points (MA, and MACD or better the PPO) how long ago, and at what index level, indicators with overbought and oversold index levels, ATRVE level, volumes over period of time, percentage gains or price rises over same period etc. reduced to a numerical value and added together, normalised to derive at a value ranking measure, then reported in a scan column. This could be the way to compare different stocks at least. And then if this value could be then compared with the value of previous periods, maybe that would indicated an improvement, or not, going forward in individual stocks.

This sounds like a scoring method, based on a number of inputs with different weights and the higher the value the better. An aim could be that the score itself be enough on its own, without having to compare prior periods.

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I'm wondering how the SPA3 Trader system scan outputs can be used in way of getting a ranking system: ATRVE, Liquidity, Market Cap, and Sector Risk.

ATRVE is the volatility in a number. The more volatile a stock the more it can potentially move upwards, same as downwards. A low volatility stock is the same but in smaller amounts each way. Liquidity is used more so for money management & position sizing relative to portfolio, which sector risk is a common one. Market Cap really just tells you the potential circulation for a stock, while liquidity is the active / in transition average of much the stock is moving.

Specifically ATRVE is an indicator that expresses the ATRE as a percentage of the stock’s price on any given day. For an ATRE 15 of a 57 cent stock is 3.1 cents then the ATRVE = 5.43% (3.1 divided by 57). The 3.1 means that the daily average true range exponentially smoothed over the last 15 trading days is 3.1 cents.

You can apply an F5 overlay via Side Panels -> Overlay for your given SIROC setting to see it on a chart and get an eye for it. It does hold true that the more a stock moves (ATR) the higher the indicator value.

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I have had to micro manage trades in IRESS for hours every day, something I want and need to get away from, as I simply can't do this from the deck of a yacht in the middle of the Pacific.

My suggestion would be to find a way to start accepting the outcomes of trades, or at least devise a plan to take a step back from these actions. It sounds like low volume day trading which is a job in of itself. Of course it can come back to being happy with the system / methodology, but also there is a psychology element involved in accepting investment outcomes. Studying (!) "Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas is something the team here strongly recommend to take a look in to with these situations, Gary you may have noticed already (or not) swear by it.

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The only problem with the basic code (due to CUM(1)) is that previous data sets the index to 100 and caps more recent data (see attached chart lower panel for the oscillator), so that recent highs are not indexed to the same higher levels but are constrained. I guess this would mean employing more complex formula code.

Having had a poke around in BCFL Quick Reference I realise the CUM(1) starts indexing from day one of the price data history so replace with this:
max_old := hhv(data, 1000);
min_old := llv(data, 1000);

What I see happening is that this function finds what the previous maximum and minimum data points are. By making it 1000, you are capping its look back to the most recent 1000 data points instead of the all time range the function needs to operate. While it is fine for anything 1000 data points or less, generally taking away information may result in distorted outcomes.

If you find the data is staying at 100 or near that, it may be more to do with the data being supplied in moving sideways at a relative point.

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p.s.s. The 'Base Reference Indicator' seems not available in BCFL? if it were those normalised current values could be reported for comparison in scans between scan candidates.

No it is not. You do have access to SECURITY() which grabs the prices from another stock, which can be used in a normalising function, but even if Base Ref was included it would be very manual to compare two items against each other. BCFL will have to be told about the othere existence explicitly.

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Ok I think I need to understand what the broader user base is using BCFL for as you seem to have a good understanding of this?

BCFL exists primarily to implement your own ideas as either a scan (which doubles as a signal on a chart) or an indicator. Of course as you found with the SIROC, not everything in Beyond Charts is interactive with BCFL. SPA3 may not also be the only investment system that someone uses, or method of deciding which stocks to buy.

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More stocks are continually coming up than I have capital for, and about 50 percent of my portfolio is in varying stage of losses slightly down from gains at any one time. At which point I then go through and cull the worst 2 to 3 stocks on any day to replace them with new incoming entries. It's a tricky business requirng watching IRESS for most of the day, and that I want to get away from doing, so to level out and understand and have better tools for this whole process of do I hold or do I cut, based on a scan ranking system.

Most SPA3 Trader trades, statistically which is represented in the back testing, will not be a profit trade. The system edge comes from exiting the losing trades early than the winning trades which results in overall larger winning trades then compounding the returns over time.

All of this can only be implemented and visibly seen in a portfolio outcome (ie. achieved), if you take SPA3 out of the equation for a moment, by having a process and sticking to it. SPA3 is the process enabler. There are systems that do better and do worse than SPA3, which are more active & less active, but finding them and working them out takes time and effort. Generally people come to us as they want to be able to achieve the equity curves that SPA3 has displayed over time and embrace the direction that having signals can provide.

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Ok so lets take the day of the month example from your quote extract above; lets say first day of the month (or week) as the comparison point of reference for price for all stocks that SPA3 has identified as trade-able from within a watch list as the 'analytical' and apposed to the 'non analytical' "A to Z or choosing a letter from the alphabet based on the time of the month".

This is looking far too much in to it. It is a process to enable stock selection, not a system in of itself. The point of analytics vs not using them, is the contents of the process which enables the habits - to be able to follow a system. It all comes back to the portfolio backtests and how those 1000s of portfolios look. In the end, one of the portfolios goes down a different tree point which include the bad and mediocre trades along the way.

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Next up is getting the RSI value to work so that the % value today is less or more than the value previous bar ago to asses if the RSI is rising or falling by x percent value over time:

The output I'm looking for is to get a single negative (-3) or positive (+3) % (or number) value output, so I can see if the indicator\price\anything is rising or falling in a scan column. I'm sure its trickier than it first appears so take your time no hurry.

Instead of looking at a number - what is the end objective you are trying to find? A rank of increase I suppose? Or to see if something is rising, falling or some combination of both? You cannot output text in to the scan columsn, but you can devise an output based on what you are after.

To find if they are rising a singular, sortable number, use the ROC() function over the desired amount of days. You can feed in your own variables as it will look at the change between the current bar and bar n (ago) as a stand alone % difference between the two. Based on your current formula, it could be a function like this perhaps:

ROC(RSI(Close, 13), 5, %);
30
Beyond Charts / Re: Help with BCFL custom Scans & Coding
« Last post by JohnR on 10/10/2019, 12:30:23 PM »
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Using BCFL or fine tuning a selection process is not necessary for SPA3 operation. Based on that most of our customers do not use BCFL for stock selection purposes. When more stocks come up than capital available, all you need is consistent process that can be analytical or non-analytical (ie. A to Z or choosing a letter from the alphabet based on the time of the month). A BCFL can help refine the returns, but does require some amount of effort for an unknown additional change to the edge.
Ok I think I need to understand what the broader user base is using BCFL for as you seem to have a good understanding of this?

More stocks are continually coming up than I have capital for, and about 50 percent of my portfolio is in varying stage of losses slightly down from gains at any one time. At which point I then go through and cull the worst 2 to 3 stocks on any day to replace them with new incoming entries. It's a tricky business requirng watching IRESS for most of the day, and that I want to get away from doing, so to level out and understand and have better tools for this whole process of do I hold or do I cut, based on a scan ranking system.

Ok so lets take the day of the month example from your quote extract above; lets say first day of the month (or week) as the comparison point of reference for price for all stocks that SPA3 has identified as trade-able from within a watch list as the 'analytical' and apposed to the 'non analytical' "A to Z or choosing a letter from the alphabet based on the time of the month".

How would I code to normalise all stock prices to be comparable? so that higher moving prices on the third day and forth day etc. could be identified in a scan column?
I think it is a 'normalisation code' that could then be applied to other aspects of variables like indicators, index levels, price to volume ratio, percent gains etc. Do you think this is doable in BCFL?
Could it be done by the reduction to a decimal like 0.1 or -0.1 so that adding all the variable decimals within the scan can then be added together to give a total tally for comparison purposes.

Separately but on the same agenda;
Next up is getting the RSI value to work so that the % value today is less or more than the value previous bar ago to asses if the RSI is rising or falling by x percent value over time:

I get the impression your head, Campbell, is chock full of stock formula code, so humbly ask once again if you could try solve the following:
I've tried a number of ways to get it to work without any success, it's another of those standard formula sequences that could be used for different indicators to replace the RSI with like ROC or moving average etc.;

The output I'm looking for is to get a single negative (-3) or positive (+3) % (or number) value output, so I can see if the indicator\price\anything is rising or falling in a scan column. I'm sure its trickier than it first appears so take your time no hurry.

This is what I started with and not sure if I'm heading in the right direction at all does it require the IF() statement:

%DAY_0 := ((RSI(Close,13) - REF(RSI(Close,13), -100)) / Ref(RSI(Close,13), -1)) * 100;
%DAY_1 := ((RSI(Close,13) - REF(RSI(Close,13), -100)) / Ref(RSI(Close,13), -2)) * 100;
%DAY_2 := ((RSI(Close,13) - REF(RSI(Close,13), -100)) / Ref(RSI(Close,13), -3)) * 100;
%DAY_3 := ((RSI(Close,13) - REF(RSI(Close,13), -100)) / Ref(RSI(Close,13), -4)) * 100;


I'll post the full scan code of what I have done so far, as you can see the RSI columns are too numerous and needs to be two column for RSI value and percent gain or loss:

MAM := FMLVAR("MA 60:90","MAM1");
MAS := FMLVAR("MA 60:90","MAS1");
ROC_LEVEL:= ROC(CLOSE,100,%);

RSI_level_0 := RSI(CLOSE,13);
RSI_level_3 := ref(RSI(close,13),-3);
MA_X := CROSS(MAM, MAS);

FILTER1 := MAM > MAS;
FILTER2 := ROC_Level > 8;
FILTER3 := CLOSE > REF(CLOSE, -1) AND REF(CLOSE, -1) > REF(CLOSE, -2) AND REF(CLOSE, -2) > REF(CLOSE, -3);
FILTER4 := MOV(CLOSE,60,S) * MOV(VOLUME,21,S) >= 50000;

%DAY_1 := ((Close - REF(Close, -100)) / Ref(Close, -1)) * 100;
%DAY_2 := ((Close - REF(Close, -100)) / Ref(Close, -2)) * 100;
%DAY_3 := ((Close - REF(Close, -100)) / Ref(Close, -3)) * 100;
{%DAY_4 := ((Close - REF(Close, -100)) / Ref(Close, -4)) * 100;}
{%DAY_5 := ((Close - REF(Close, -100)) / Ref(Close, -5)) * 100;}

RSI_%DAY_0 := ((RSI(Close,13) - REF(RSI(Close,13), -100)) / Ref(RSI(Close,13), -1)) * 100;
RSI_%DAY_1 := ((RSI(Close,13) - REF(RSI(Close,13), -100)) / Ref(RSI(Close,13), -2)) * 100;
RSI_%DAY_2 := ((RSI(Close,13) - REF(RSI(Close,13), -100)) / Ref(RSI(Close,13), -3)) * 100;
RSI_%DAY_3 := ((RSI(Close,13) - REF(RSI(Close,13), -100)) / Ref(RSI(Close,13), -4)) * 100;

Av % Gain 3_Days := (%DAY_1 + %DAY_2 + %DAY_3)/3 { + %DAY_4 + %DAY_5};
Bars_Since MA_X := barssince(MA_X);

Output := 1 AND FILTER1
AND FILTER2
AND FILTER3
AND FILTER4
AND Av % Gain 3_Days
AND ROC_LEVEL
AND Bars_Since MA_X
AND RSI_Level_0
AND RSI_%DAY_0
AND RSI_%DAY_1
AND RSI_%DAY_2
AND RSI_%DAY_3;

Output;
ShowCol(Av % Gain 3_Days, ROC_LEVEL, Bars_Since MA_X, RSI_level_0, RSI_%DAY_0, RSI_%DAY_1, RSI_%DAY_2, RSI_%DAY_3, "WL Name");
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