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21 December, 2009 Equity markets around the world are in holding patterns moving sideways in consolidation phases following the huge rises reported in the previous issue of the Active Investor at the end of November. The sideways movement could continue for a few more weeks given the length and size of the equity market rises around the world from mid March 2009 to mid October. The rectangles that have formed on equity indices over the last 2 or so months are typically continuation patterns which means that there is a high probability of a breakout to the upside when there is eventually a breakout. Remember, there is are no guarantees so don't pre-empt the breakout. Be patient and wait for it or you may get caught out if the breakout is to the downside.
I would
like to take this opportunity to wish all Active Investor eNewsletter
readers a merry Christmas and a prosperous 2010. The next Active
Investor issue will be towards the end of January 2010.
Copper continues its short, medium and long-term uptrend as do Zinc and Lead. Rising metals prices strengthens the probability of a breakout to the upside for equities.
The big
news is the recent breakout by the US Dollar Index. The trend has
changed to up in the short, medium and long-term. A SPA3 entry signal
occurred on the USD Index on 11 December indicating a high probability
long trade in the US$ against a basket of currencies, including the A$.
It will be interesting to see how Gold reacts to the strengthening
US$.
The S&P500 and other USA equity indices have been a bit more bullish than the ALL-ORDS. The S&P500 is much closer to its recent high than the ALL-ORDS. The S&P500 has been consolidating between 1080 and 1120. A breakout above 1120 will see US equities continue their rise probably to 1200 and then possibly to 1300. Whereas a breakout below 1080 could see the S&P500 fall to its next support level around 1030. The daily SIROC is still falling which it will continue to do while prices move sideways.
The ALL-ORDS is most definitely in a sideways consolidation pattern between around 4600 and 4800. This rectangle pattern has formed within a wider consolidation between around 4500 and 4900. From a Fibonacci viewpoint, this sideways movement is occurring between the 38.2% and 50% upward retracement of the Nov 2007 to Mar 2009 bear market although the ALL-ORDS is positioned closer to the mid point of these two retracement levels whilst the S&P500 is bouncing along just below the 50% retracement level. To track higher over the next few months, the 4600 or 4500 support level has to hold if there is further weakness in equity markets. If we see a rising market in the near future the ALL-ORDS needs to break through 4800 in the first instance and then 4900. Following a 55% rise over seven months the odds are that we'll see sideways movement for a few weeks longer yet. Maybe another 4 to 8 weeks. This is not a science however a sideways consolidation for three to five months will not be a bad thing. The SPA3 public portfolios continue to outperform the market by a large margin. See the performance table below that shows the comparative compounded annual returns.
Compounded Annual Return
The SPA Hedge portfolio uses the SPA3 hEdge rules to hedge the SPA3 Portfolio during SPA3 High Risk Market periods. For more information on using SPA3 to manage your active investment portfolio click here. The ALL-ORDS can be used as an indication of equity Managed Fund and equity Managed Super Fund past performance. All actions each day for SPA Portfolio 1 are available to Share Wealth Systems members who use Market Master through our daily download software along with the actual public portfolio files for importing into the SPA software. Intelledgence and SPA Buy Signals The table below shows the number of Intelledgence and SPA Buy signals for the past three weeks.
*Our scan includes stocks that have had four zero trading days unless it is a suspension. Before entering we ensure that the position size calculated has at least 5 times the average daily traded volume for that stock. The table below shows a sample of some of the Intelledgence and SPA buys that occurred last week.
For SPA buys, a complete list is available to SPA customers by using
the 'SPA Scan' under the 'SPA' pull down menu in Market Master X-ec.
For Intelledgence buys, a complete list is available to Intelledgence
customers in the Members Zone by choosing 'Intelledgence', 'Alerts'. Share Wealth Systems provides more detail on all of the above items at our eUGMS. The eUGMs are monthly multimedia presentations available to Share Wealth Systems members only. |
